Actual result
D+9.3
Final polls said
D+1.6
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | D+2.1 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+1.7 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+1.0 | 8.3 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-14 | 1785 | D+2.1 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-02 | 450 | D+1.0 | 8 |