VotePredictor
past elections

New Mexico House

Martin Heinrich (D) vs Jonathan L. Barela (R)

Actual result
D+3.6
Final polls said
R+4.2
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.3
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Public Policy PollingD+7.03.4
2VotePredictorR+0.33.9
3Public Opinion StrategiesR+2.05.6
4Research & Polling Inc.R+3.06.6
5ccAdvertisingR+7.511.1

Polls (5)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Research & Polling Inc.2010-10-27400R+3.07
Public Opinion Strategies2010-10-24400R+2.06
ccAdvertising2010-10-18442R+7.511
Research & Polling Inc.2010-09-29403D+7.03
Public Policy Polling2010-09-25540D+7.03