Actual result
D+3.6
Final polls said
R+4.2
3 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+0.3 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+3.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 5 | ccAdvertising | R+7.5 | 11.1 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2010-10-27 | 400 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-24 | 400 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-18 | 442 | R+7.5 | 11 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2010-09-29 | 403 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-25 | 540 | D+7.0 | 3 |