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Toss-up · 2010 House
New Mexico House
In the 2010 New Mexico House race, Martin Heinrich (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+3.6
Final polls said
R+4.2
3 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+2.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+3.0 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | R+7.5 | 11.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Research & Polling Inc.2010-10-277
Public Opinion Strategies2010-10-246
ccAdvertising2010-10-1811
Research & Polling Inc.2010-09-293
Public Policy Polling2010-09-253
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 New Mexico House race?
Martin Heinrich (D) won, by about 3.6 points (D+3.6).
When was the 2010 New Mexico House election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.