Actual result
D+4.7
Final polls said
D+0.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
EVEN
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+1.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+1.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | PSB Research | EVEN | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | EVEN | 4.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | ccAdvertising | R+0.6 | 5.3 | ✗ |
| 6 | Iona University Political Science Department | R+1.0 | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+2.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2010-10-25 | 651 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Iona University Political Science Department | 2010-10-20 | 601 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-17 | 636 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-13 | 416 | EVEN | 5 |
| Siena College | 2010-10-07 | 610 | R+3.0 | 8 |
| Iona University Political Science Department | 2010-10-06 | 800 | EVEN | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-04 | 442 | R+0.6 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-11 | 602 | R+2.0 | 7 |