Actual result
D+10.5
Final polls said
D+5.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Siena College | D+12.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+6.1 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+1.0 | 11.5 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2010-10-11 | 623 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2010-10-04 | 400 | R+1.0 | 11 |