Actual result
R+10.3
Final polls said
R+1.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Digital Research | R+9.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Tarrance Group | R+5.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+1.8 | 8.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | PSB Research | EVEN | 10.3 | ✗ |
| 5 | Lycoming College Polling Institute | D+6.0 | 16.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Momentum Analysis | D+7.0 | 17.4 | ✗ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Digital Research | 2010-10-24 | 400 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| Lycoming College Polling Institute | 2010-10-19 | 296 | D+6.0 | 16 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-13 | 406 | EVEN | 10 |
| Momentum Analysis | 2010-10-12 | 400 | D+7.0 | 17 |
| Digital Research | 2010-10-10 | 400 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Tarrance Group | 2010-10-06 | 442 | R+5.0 | 5 |
| Lycoming College Polling Institute | 2010-09-28 | 370 | D+3.0 | 13 |
| Momentum Analysis | 2010-09-24 | 400 | D+8.0 | 18 |
| Digital Research | 2010-09-22 | 197 | R+4.0 | 6 |