Actual result
R+7.0
Final polls said
R+4.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+5.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.3 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+10.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+14.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Global Strategy Group | D+2.0 | 9.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | PSB Research | D+3.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
| 7 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+3.0 | 10.1 | ✗ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-19 | 400 | R+10.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2010-10-18 | 400 | D+2.0 | 9 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2010-10-12 | 646 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-11 | 398 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2010-09-21 | 507 | D+3.0 | 10 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2010-09-16 | 379 | R+14.0 | 7 |