Actual result
R+10.7
Final polls said
R+3.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+3.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSB Research | R+6.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+5.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | North Star Opinion Research | R+5.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+3.3 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | R+1.0 | 9.7 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2010-10-18 | 490 | R+1.0 | 10 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-10-17 | 400 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2010-09-26 | 400 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| PSB Research | 2010-09-26 | 397 | R+6.0 | 5 |
| North Star Opinion Research | 2010-09-25 | 400 | R+5.0 | 6 |