Actual result
R+9.6
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | R+10.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+4.1 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+3.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | OnMessage Inc. | R+18.0 | 8.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | PSB Research | R+1.0 | 8.6 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-23 | 442 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| PSB Research | 2010-10-13 | 415 | R+1.0 | 9 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-06 | 442 | R+10.0 | 0 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2010-09-15 | 400 | R+18.0 | 8 |