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Toss-up · 2010 Senate
California Senate
In the 2010 California Senate race, Barbara Boxer (D) won by about 10 points.
Actual result
D+10.0
Final polls said
D+5.2
18 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suffolk University | D+9.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | D+8.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+8.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+8.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Angus Reid Global | D+7.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Big Village | D+5.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+5.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Ipsos | D+1.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Tarrance Group | EVEN | 10.0 | ✗ |
| 14 | WPA Intelligence | R+3.0 | 13.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | ccAdvertising | R+4.1 | 14.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
38 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Public Policy Polling2010-10-306
YouGov2010-10-306
SurveyUSA2010-10-282
Angus Reid Global2010-10-283
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-277
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 California Senate race?
Barbara Boxer (D) won, by about 10.0 points (D+10.0).
When was the 2010 California Senate election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.