Actual result
D+10.0
Final polls said
D+5.2
18 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Suffolk University | D+9.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+8.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Tulchin Research | D+8.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+8.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+8.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Angus Reid Global | D+7.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+6.5 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Big Village | D+5.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+5.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+3.0 | 7.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Ipsos | D+1.0 | 9.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | Tarrance Group | EVEN | 10.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | WPA Intelligence | R+3.0 | 13.0 | ✗ |
| 16 | ccAdvertising | R+4.1 | 14.1 | ✗ |
Polls (38)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 882 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-30 | 810 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-28 | 587 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2010-10-28 | 485 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-27 | 750 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 814 | D+3.3 | 7 |
| Tulchin Research | 2010-10-26 | 700 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-10-23 | 600 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-23 | 888 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-23 | 594 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-23 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-22 | 622 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-21 | 750 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2010-10-20 | 1092 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Tarrance Group | 2010-10-18 | 600 | EVEN | 10 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-17 | 621 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | 2010-10-17 | 922 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-16 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2010-10-14 | 1067 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2010-10-13 | 448 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2010-10-13 | 800 | R+3.0 | 13 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-13 | 750 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2010-10-05 | 501 | D+16.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-03 | 750 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2010-10-03 | 448 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-02 | 670 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-29 | 1681 | R+4.1 | 14 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-26 | 786 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2010-09-23 | 1104 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-20 | 750 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-20 | 610 | D+6.0 | 4 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | 2010-09-19 | 838 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2010-09-18 | 599 | EVEN | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-18 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-15 | 630 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-11 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-06 | 750 | R+1.0 | 11 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-04 | 866 | D+4.0 | 6 |