VotePredictor
past elections

Iowa Senate

Roxanne Conlin (D) vs Chuck Grassley (R)

Actual result
R+31.1
Final polls said
R+31.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+26.5
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Selzer & Co.R+31.00.1
2VotePredictorR+26.54.5
3Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)R+18.013.1

Polls (3)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Selzer & Co.2010-10-28805R+31.00
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-23500R+18.013
Selzer & Co.2010-09-21550R+31.00