Actual result
R+11.8
Final polls said
R+11.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | R+12.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.9 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Tyson Group | R+10.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+14.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | High Point University Survey Research Center | R+14.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | R+15.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | National Research | R+20.0 | 8.2 | ✓ |
Polls (10)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 847 | R+12.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-24 | 590 | R+15.0 | 3 |
| The Tyson Group | 2010-10-19 | 600 | R+10.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-16 | 597 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-12 | 500 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2010-09-27 | 400 | R+14.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-25 | 681 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| National Research | 2010-09-16 | 600 | R+20.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-12 | 582 | R+24.0 | 12 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-08 | 500 | R+16.0 | 4 |