Actual result
D+38.0
Final polls said
D+25.2
20 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+25.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New York Times | D+40.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyUSA | D+30.0 | 8.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+28.0 | 10.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+26.0 | 12.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+25.7 | 12.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | D+23.0 | 15.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Angus Reid Global | D+21.0 | 17.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Siena College | D+20.0 | 18.0 | ✓ |
| 9 | Big Village | D+16.0 | 22.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+15.0 | 23.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 28.0 | ✓ |
Polls (43)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2010-10-30 | 578 | D+26.0 | 12 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-30 | 578 | D+23.6 | 8 |
| Siena College | 2010-10-29 | 603 | D+20.0 | 12 |
| Siena College | 2010-10-29 | 603 | D+32.0 | 6 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2010-10-28 | 508 | D+21.0 | 11 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2010-10-28 | 541 | D+26.0 | 12 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-27 | 544 | D+30.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 819 | D+24.0 | 14 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-27 | 544 | D+20.0 | 12 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 819 | D+24.0 | 8 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-27 | 415 | D+15.0 | 17 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-27 | 415 | D+24.0 | 14 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-21 | 672 | D+23.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-21 | 672 | D+32.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-19 | 500 | D+28.0 | 10 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-19 | 505 | D+18.0 | 14 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-19 | 500 | D+21.0 | 11 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-19 | 505 | D+28.0 | 10 |
| Siena College | 2010-10-16 | 647 | D+39.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2010-10-16 | 647 | D+29.0 | 3 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-12 | 633 | D+18.0 | 14 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-12 | 633 | D+33.0 | 5 |
| The New York Times | 2010-10-12 | 927 | D+40.0 | 2 |
| The New York Times | 2010-10-12 | 927 | D+25.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-06 | 627 | D+30.0 | 8 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-06 | 627 | D+19.0 | 13 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2010-10-06 | 500 | D+40.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-03 | 585 | D+16.0 | 22 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-03 | 1141 | D+21.0 | 11 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-03 | 585 | D+14.0 | 18 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-03 | 1141 | D+31.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-02 | 592 | D+10.0 | 22 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-02 | 592 | D+22.0 | 16 |
| Marist College | 2010-09-21 | 617 | D+12.0 | 20 |
| Marist College | 2010-09-21 | 617 | D+21.0 | 17 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-20 | 572 | D+1.0 | 31 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-20 | 572 | D+21.0 | 17 |
| Siena College | 2010-09-18 | 801 | D+33.0 | 5 |
| Siena College | 2010-09-18 | 801 | D+26.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-09-18 | 751 | D+6.0 | 26 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-09-18 | 751 | D+16.0 | 22 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-16 | 500 | D+10.0 | 22 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-16 | 500 | D+22.0 | 16 |