VotePredictor
past elections

Ohio Senate

Lee Fisher (D) vs Rob Portman (R)

Actual result
R+17.4
Final polls said
R+16.9
14 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+14.7
Winner
Rep

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1Angus Reid GlobalR+17.00.4
2Public Policy PollingR+18.00.6
3ccAdvertisingR+18.30.9
4Columbus DispatchR+16.01.4
5Quinnipiac UniversityR+19.01.6
6SurveyUSAR+15.02.4
7Big VillageR+15.02.4
8VotePredictorR+14.72.8
9University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)R+21.03.6
10YouGovR+13.04.4
11WPA IntelligenceR+11.06.4
12CBS News/The New York TimesR+11.06.4
13Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)R+24.06.6
14Suffolk UniversityR+10.07.4
15IpsosR+3.014.4

Polls (34)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
YouGov2010-10-30560R+13.04
University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)2010-10-29930R+21.04
Public Policy Polling2010-10-291356R+18.01
Angus Reid Global2010-10-28492R+17.00
Quinnipiac University2010-10-27848R+19.02
YouGov2010-10-27805R+13.04
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-26750R+24.07
SurveyUSA2010-10-24613R+15.02
Columbus Dispatch2010-10-241445R+16.01
Quinnipiac University2010-10-21686R+17.00
WPA Intelligence2010-10-20500R+11.06
ccAdvertising2010-10-192060R+18.31
Big Village2010-10-17863R+15.02
University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)2010-10-16839R+19.02
Quinnipiac University2010-10-141188R+21.04
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-11750R+23.06
University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)2010-10-10652R+22.05
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-091000R+17.00
Angus Reid Global2010-10-07500R+9.08
Suffolk University2010-10-05500R+10.07
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-021000R+16.01
Quinnipiac University2010-10-011025R+19.02
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-27500R+9.08
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-251000R+13.04
CBS News/The New York Times2010-09-25941R+11.06
Ipsos2010-09-25600R+3.014
Ipsos2010-09-24440R+13.04
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-181000R+13.04
University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll)2010-09-18852R+15.02
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-13750R+8.09
Big Village2010-09-12820R+11.06
SurveyUSA2010-09-12641R+9.08
Quinnipiac University2010-09-11730R+20.03
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-09-111000R+7.010