Actual result
R+2.0
Final polls said
R+3.6
17 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+2.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Big Village | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Digital Research | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | EVEN | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | R+4.1 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Suffolk University | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Marist College | R+7.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 15 | ccAdvertising | R+7.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 16 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+8.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 17 | Magellan Strategies | R+8.8 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Polls (35)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2010-10-30 | 474 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-30 | 570 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 772 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-28 | 750 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-27 | 461 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-27 | 1244 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 779 | R+6.0 | 4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-26 | 800 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2010-10-26 | 460 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2010-10-23 | 400 | EVEN | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-23 | 823 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2010-10-22 | 445 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-21 | 750 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2010-10-21 | 489 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2010-10-18 | 403 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-17 | 718 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-10-15 | 1046 | R+2.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-12 | 750 | R+10.0 | 8 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2010-10-09 | 604 | D+3.0 | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-07 | 2236 | R+7.6 | 6 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2010-10-05 | 800 | R+1.0 | 1 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2010-10-01 | 577 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-29 | 750 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2010-09-27 | 468 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Suffolk University | 2010-09-26 | 500 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-09-25 | 800 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2010-09-23 | 436 | R+9.0 | 7 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2010-09-21 | 1430 | R+8.8 | 7 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2010-09-20 | 445 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-19 | 741 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-18 | 1000 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2010-09-17 | 684 | R+7.0 | 5 |
| Digital Research | 2010-09-15 | 600 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-13 | 750 | R+8.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-11 | 1000 | R+6.0 | 4 |