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Toss-up · 2010 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race, Patrick J. Toomey (R) won by about 2 points.
Actual result
R+2.0
Final polls said
R+3.6
17 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+2.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Normington, Petts & Associates | R+1.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Big Village | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Digital Research | R+4.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | EVEN | 2.0 | ✗ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 10 | Quinnipiac University | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | Suffolk University | R+5.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Marist College | R+7.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+3.0 | 5.0 | ✗ |
| 14 | ccAdvertising | R+7.6 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | R+8.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 16 | Magellan Strategies | R+8.8 | 6.8 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
35 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2010-10-302
YouGov2010-10-302
Public Policy Polling2010-10-303
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)2010-10-282
Marist College2010-10-275
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate race?
Patrick J. Toomey (R) won, by about 2.0 points (R+2.0).
When was the 2010 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2010.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.