Actual result
R+33.8
Final polls said
R+37.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+36.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crantford Research | R+33.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+36.9 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+37.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | R+47.1 | 13.3 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-19 | 500 | R+37.0 | 3 |
| Winthrop University Center for Public Opinion & Policy Research | 2010-10-07 | 741 | R+47.1 | 13 |
| Crantford Research | 2010-09-30 | 634 | R+33.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-22 | 500 | R+43.0 | 9 |