Actual result
R+4.8
Final polls said
R+5.9
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Forward Strategies | R+4.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Voter/Consumer Research | R+4.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Wood Communications Group | R+4.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+6.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | R+6.2 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Marist College | R+7.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+7.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 8 | Ipsos | R+7.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 9 | ccAdvertising | R+7.3 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | R+2.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Big Village | R+8.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 12 | Public Policy Polling | R+9.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 13 | FM3 Research | EVEN | 4.8 | ✗ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-27 | 1372 | R+9.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 842 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-27 | 491 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Forward Strategies | 2010-10-27 | 700 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2010-10-26 | 400 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Wood Communications Group | 2010-10-26 | 400 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-25 | 750 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2010-10-14 | 402 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-11 | 750 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2010-10-10 | 451 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-10 | 931 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| FM3 Research | 2010-10-09 | 679 | EVEN | 5 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-10-06 | 1978 | R+7.3 | 2 |
| FM3 Research | 2010-10-05 | 600 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2010-10-01 | 400 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Wood Communications Group | 2010-10-01 | 400 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-29 | 750 | R+12.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2010-09-27 | 503 | R+7.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-25 | 1000 | R+8.0 | 3 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-19 | 963 | R+6.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-09-18 | 677 | R+11.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-15 | 750 | R+7.0 | 2 |