Actual result
R+11.4
Final polls said
R+13.1
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | National Research | R+11.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | R+13.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+13.4 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Elon University | R+14.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | The Tyson Group | R+14.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | R+7.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+16.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Gravis Marketing | R+16.3 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | R+17.0 | 5.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+19.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 926 | R+7.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-30 | 730 | R+11.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-28 | 682 | R+17.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-25 | 500 | R+19.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-24 | 880 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| Elon University | 2012-10-23 | 1238 | R+14.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-17 | 500 | R+11.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-13 | 1084 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| The Tyson Group | 2012-10-12 | 600 | R+14.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-09 | 500 | R+14.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 772 | R+16.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-07 | 1325 | R+16.3 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-02 | 500 | R+16.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-30 | 573 | R+12.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-29 | 981 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-24 | 1035 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| National Research | 2012-09-18 | 600 | R+11.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-13 | 500 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1022 | R+16.0 | 5 |