Actual result
R+7.8
Final polls said
R+4.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NRCC | R+9.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.5 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | The Tyson Group | R+5.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Impact Research | D+1.0 | 8.8 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tyson Group | 2012-10-01 | 400 | R+5.0 | 3 |
| Impact Research | 2012-09-26 | 400 | D+1.0 | 9 |
| NRCC | 2012-09-25 | 784 | R+9.0 | 1 |