Actual result
R+8.9
Final polls said
R+13.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+10.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+13.3 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+17.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2012-09-30 | 614 | R+10.0 | 1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-09-17 | 400 | R+17.0 | 8 |