Actual result
D+18.3
Final polls said
D+15.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+14.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+15.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | GQR | D+15.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+14.1 | 4.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2012-10-24 | 401 | D+15.0 | 3 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2012-10-10 | 402 | D+14.0 | 4 |
| GQR | 2012-10-08 | 407 | D+15.0 | 3 |