VotePredictor
past elections

New Mexico House

Ben Ray Luján (D) vs Jefferson L. Byrd (R)

Actual result
D+26.3
Final polls said
D+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.3
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorD+20.36.0
2Research & Polling Inc.D+18.08.3

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
Research & Polling Inc.2012-10-24148D+18.08
Research & Polling Inc.2012-10-10140D+24.02