Actual result
R+7.7
Final polls said
R+14.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benenson Strategy Group | R+9.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | R+12.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+16.3 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+22.0 | 14.3 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2012-10-05 | 766 | R+12.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-01 | 400 | R+22.0 | 14 |
| Benenson Strategy Group | 2012-09-22 | 400 | R+9.0 | 1 |