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Toss-up · 2012 President
California President
In the 2012 California President race, Barack Obama (D) won by about 23 points.
Actual result
D+23.1
Final polls said
D+15.8
5 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MFour Mobile Research | D+22.9 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+15.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+15.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+15.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+14.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+12.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
16 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-028
MFour Mobile Research2012-10-250
Field Research Corp. (Field Poll)2012-10-238
Public Policy Institute of California2012-10-1811
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint2012-10-189
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 California President race?
Barack Obama (D) won, by about 23.1 points (D+23.1).
When was the 2012 California President election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.