Actual result
D+23.1
Final polls said
D+15.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+20.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MFour Mobile Research | D+22.9 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+20.3 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+15.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+15.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+15.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+14.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyUSA | D+14.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+12.0 | 11.1 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1575 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| MFour Mobile Research | 2012-10-25 | 2115 | D+22.9 | 0 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2012-10-23 | 1566 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2012-10-18 | 993 | D+12.0 | 11 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | 2012-10-18 | 1440 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2012-10-13 | 508 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2012-10-13 | 709 | D+15.0 | 8 |
| MFour Mobile Research | 2012-10-09 | 830 | D+21.1 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 1169 | D+19.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-08 | 539 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| MFour Mobile Research | 2012-09-25 | 824 | D+27.9 | 5 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2012-09-13 | 995 | D+14.0 | 9 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2012-09-12 | 891 | D+24.0 | 1 |
| MFour Mobile Research | 2012-09-11 | 802 | D+22.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1361 | D+17.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-10 | 524 | D+22.0 | 1 |