Actual result
D+0.9
Final polls said
R+0.3
35 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+0.5
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | D+1.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | EVEN | 0.9 | ✗ |
| 4 | Angus Reid Global | EVEN | 0.9 | ✗ |
| 5 | Big Village | EVEN | 0.9 | ✗ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 0.9 | ✗ |
| 7 | Mellman Group | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | D+2.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Zogby Analytics | R+0.3 | 1.2 | ✗ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | R+0.5 | 1.3 | ✗ |
| 11 | We Ask America | R+0.9 | 1.8 | ✗ |
| 12 | Ipsos | R+1.0 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 13 | YouGov | R+1.0 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 14 | Purple Strategies | R+1.0 | 1.9 | ✗ |
| 15 | Suffolk University | D+3.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 16 | Rasmussen Reports | R+2.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+2.0 | 2.9 | ✗ |
| 18 | University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | D+4.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 19 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+4.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 20 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+3.0 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 21 | American Research Group | R+3.0 | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 22 | Quinnipiac University | D+5.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 23 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+3.9 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 24 | Hill Research Consultants | R+4.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 25 | InsiderAdvantage | R+5.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 26 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+5.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 27 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+6.0 | 6.9 | ✗ |
Polls (66)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 2012-11-04 | 769 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-11-04 | 1060 | EVEN | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-11-04 | 876 | R+0.3 | 1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2012-11-04 | 437 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 955 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1621 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-11-02 | 525 | EVEN | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 1319 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-11-01 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 985 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-31 | 800 | R+6.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-31 | 1545 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-30 | 1146 | R+0.9 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-30 | 549 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-29 | 1000 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-29 | 825 | D+0.5 | 0 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-28 | 600 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Big Village | 2012-10-27 | 770 | EVEN | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-27 | 687 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-26 | 800 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-26 | 595 | EVEN | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-25 | 750 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-25 | 1073 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-24 | 1182 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-23 | 600 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-10-23 | 1001 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-20 | 800 | EVEN | 1 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-10-19 | 502 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-18 | 750 | R+5.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-10-17 | 1130 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-17 | 842 | D+6.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2012-10-17 | 681 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-17 | 600 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-17 | 500 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-17 | 800 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-13 | 617 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-13 | 791 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-11 | 750 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-10 | 600 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-09 | 800 | R+7.0 | 8 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-08 | 988 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 1244 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab | 2012-10-05 | 653 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Hill Research Consultants | 2012-10-05 | 604 | R+4.0 | 5 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-04 | 1200 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-04 | 1060 | EVEN | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-04 | 500 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-30 | 890 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-29 | 914 | D+0.6 | 0 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-09-29 | 600 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2012-09-24 | 540 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-22 | 861 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-21 | 600 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-21 | 1196 | D+9.0 | 8 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-09-21 | 769 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-09-18 | 800 | D+1.0 | 0 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-18 | 1230 | D+3.6 | 3 |
| Purple Strategies | 2012-09-17 | 600 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-09-17 | 829 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-15 | 1728 | R+0.6 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-12 | 500 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-09-11 | 600 | R+3.9 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1415 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-10 | 980 | D+5.0 | 4 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-09-09 | 600 | R+3.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-08 | 596 | D+4.0 | 3 |