Actual result
D+5.8
Final polls said
D+2.3
20 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+3.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marist College | D+6.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Selzer & Co. | D+5.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Gravis Marketing | D+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+3.5 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Grove Insight | D+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | CallFire | D+3.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Mellman Group | D+2.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | We Ask America | D+1.5 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Cooperative | R+0.8 | 6.6 | ✗ |
| 12 | American Research Group | R+1.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 13 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+1.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
| 14 | Voter/Consumer Research | R+1.0 | 6.8 | ✗ |
Polls (31)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 1122 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| American Research Group | 2012-11-03 | 600 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1040 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2012-11-01 | 800 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-11-01 | 500 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-11-01 | 594 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-31 | 600 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-30 | 1174 | D+1.5 | 4 |
| CallFire | 2012-10-30 | 891 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-30 | 750 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-29 | 676 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-28 | 1142 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-24 | 517 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-23 | 690 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| University of Iowa Hawkeye Poll Cooperative | 2012-10-22 | 307 | R+0.8 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-21 | 500 | EVEN | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-18 | 869 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-18 | 660 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-16 | 1137 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-15 | 1499 | D+2.8 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-13 | 600 | EVEN | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 545 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-07 | 500 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-26 | 1273 | D+3.8 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-25 | 754 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2012-09-25 | 650 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Voter/Consumer Research | 2012-09-24 | 500 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-22 | 600 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-19 | 500 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-17 | 898 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 700 | D+5.0 | 1 |