Actual result
D+29.5
Final polls said
D+25.5
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+27.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+29.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+28.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+27.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | D+26.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Siena College | D+24.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+23.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1430 | D+23.0 | 7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-24 | 554 | D+29.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2012-10-23 | 750 | D+24.0 | 6 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-20 | 565 | D+26.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 1142 | D+24.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1403 | D+22.0 | 8 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-06 | 1486 | D+28.0 | 2 |