Toss-up · 2012 President

Pennsylvania President

In the 2012 Pennsylvania President race, Barack Obama (D) won by about 5 points.

Actual result

D+5.4

Final polls said

D+4.6

15 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)	D+5.0	0.4	✓
2	We Ask America	D+5.9	0.5	✓
3	Public Policy Polling	D+6.0	0.6	✓
4	Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer)	D+6.0	0.6	✓
5	Angus Reid Global	D+4.0	1.4	✓
6	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+4.0	1.4	✓
7	Quinnipiac University	D+4.0	1.4	✓
8	Gravis Marketing	D+3.0	2.4	✓
9	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	D+3.0	2.4	✓
10	Rasmussen Reports	D+3.0	2.4	✓
11	Siena College	D+3.0	2.4	✓
12	YouGov	D+8.0	2.6	✓
13	Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics	D+8.0	2.6	✓
14	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	EVEN	5.4	✗