Actual result
D+5.4
Final polls said
D+4.6
15 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+6.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+5.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | We Ask America | D+5.9 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+6.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | D+6.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+6.7 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Angus Reid Global | D+4.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+4.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 8 | Quinnipiac University | D+4.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | D+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 11 | Rasmussen Reports | D+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 12 | Siena College | D+3.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 13 | YouGov | D+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 14 | Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | D+8.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | EVEN | 5.4 | ✗ |
Polls (38)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-11-04 | 1060 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-11-03 | 507 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 790 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1273 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2012-11-02 | 430 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-30 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-10-30 | 800 | EVEN | 5 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2012-10-25 | 547 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | 2012-10-24 | 600 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-24 | 500 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-23 | 1000 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-21 | 887 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-10-19 | 559 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2012-10-19 | 444 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-15 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-13 | 1519 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-13 | 500 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-10-12 | 1376 | R+4.0 | 9 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2012-10-12 | 438 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-09 | 500 | D+5.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 966 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-08 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | 2012-10-06 | 600 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-10-05 | 725 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Siena College | 2012-10-03 | 545 | D+3.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-01 | 1000 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2012-09-24 | 427 | D+7.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-21 | 1180 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2012-09-20 | 392 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-09-19 | 800 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-19 | 500 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-18 | 1214 | D+5.9 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-17 | 2051 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2012-09-16 | 800 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | 2012-09-16 | 522 | D+8.0 | 3 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2012-09-13 | 640 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1139 | D+9.0 | 4 |
| Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | 2012-09-11 | 600 | D+11.0 | 6 |