Actual result
R+20.4
Final polls said
R+18.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+16.7 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Middle Tennessee State University | R+25.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+11.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 697 | R+11.0 | 9 |
| Middle Tennessee State University | 2012-10-18 | 609 | R+25.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 484 | R+9.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 694 | R+8.0 | 12 |