Actual result
D+3.9
Final polls said
D+1.0
32 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+4.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mellman Group | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Garin-Hart-Yang/Global Strategy Group | D+3.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | Suffolk University | D+2.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+1.3 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 12 | We Ask America | D+0.9 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Old Dominion University | D+7.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 14 | Zogby Analytics | D+0.3 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 15 | Gravis Marketing | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 16 | Purple Strategies | EVEN | 3.9 | ✗ |
| 17 | American Research Group | R+1.0 | 4.9 | ✗ |
| 18 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 19 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 20 | CallFire | R+2.0 | 5.9 | ✗ |
| 21 | Clout Research | R+2.1 | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 22 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | R+5.0 | 8.9 | ✗ |
| 23 | McLaughlin & Associates | R+7.0 | 10.9 | ✗ |
Polls (59)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-11-04 | 800 | D+0.3 | 4 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-04 | 828 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-11-04 | 750 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 975 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1497 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 1065 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-11-01 | 800 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2012-11-01 | 1165 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 1197 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-31 | 1069 | D+0.9 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-30 | 600 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-30 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-29 | 800 | R+0.8 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-27 | 827 | D+2.1 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang/Global Strategy Group | 2012-10-26 | 807 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-26 | 645 | EVEN | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-25 | 1074 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2012-10-25 | 638 | R+5.0 | 9 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-24 | 834 | EVEN | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-10-24 | 1228 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Purple Strategies | 2012-10-24 | 600 | EVEN | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-24 | 750 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-10-23 | 1126 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-23 | 722 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-23 | 1000 | EVEN | 4 |
| Mellman Group | 2012-10-20 | 800 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Clout Research | 2012-10-19 | 1000 | R+2.1 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-18 | 500 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-18 | 750 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| CallFire | 2012-10-17 | 624 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-15 | 733 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-15 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| American Research Group | 2012-10-13 | 600 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-11 | 750 | R+2.0 | 6 |
| McLaughlin & Associates | 2012-10-08 | 600 | R+7.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 743 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-08 | 981 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-08 | 1000 | EVEN | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-06 | 1288 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-06 | 725 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-04 | 500 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-04 | 1200 | R+3.0 | 7 |
| Old Dominion University | 2012-10-03 | 465 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-01 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-30 | 969 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| American Research Group | 2012-09-26 | 600 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-09-25 | 600 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2012-09-23 | 589 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-18 | 2770 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-17 | 1238 | D+2.8 | 1 |
| Purple Strategies | 2012-09-17 | 600 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-09-17 | 1006 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-15 | 1021 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-14 | 1474 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-09-14 | 847 | D+8.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-13 | 500 | D+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1047 | D+4.0 | 0 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-10 | 996 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-08 | 2238 | R+5.3 | 9 |