Toss-up · 2012 President

Virginia President

In the 2012 Virginia President race, Barack Obama (D) won by about 4 points.

Actual result

D+3.9

Final polls said

D+1.0

32 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Public Policy Polling	D+4.0	0.1	✓
2	ABC News/The Washington Post	D+4.0	0.1	✓
3	Mellman Group	D+3.0	0.9	✓
4	Garin-Hart-Yang/Global Strategy Group	D+3.0	0.9	✓
5	Ipsos	D+2.0	1.9	✓
6	YouGov	D+2.0	1.9	✓
7	Quinnipiac University	D+2.0	1.9	✓
8	Suffolk University	D+2.0	1.9	✓
9	Marist College	D+1.0	2.9	✓
10	Rasmussen Reports	D+1.0	2.9	✓
11	We Ask America	D+0.9	3.0	✓
12	Old Dominion University	D+7.0	3.1	✓
13	Zogby Analytics	D+0.3	3.6	✓
14	Gravis Marketing	EVEN	3.9	✗
15	Purple Strategies	EVEN	3.9	✗
16	American Research Group	R+1.0	4.9	✗
17	Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)	R+2.0	5.9	✗
18	Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research	R+2.0	5.9	✗
19	CallFire	R+2.0	5.9	✗
20	Clout Research	R+2.1	6.0	✗
21	Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research	R+5.0	8.9	✗
22	McLaughlin & Associates	R+7.0	10.9	✗