Actual result
D+6.8
Final polls said
D+4.0
22 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+5.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | We Ask America | D+6.7 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Angus Reid Global | D+7.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Grove Insight | D+6.0 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marquette University Law School | D+8.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+5.3 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | D+9.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+4.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Zogby Analytics | D+10.1 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+3.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | D+3.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 12 | Clout Research | D+2.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 13 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
| 14 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 15 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | EVEN | 6.8 | ✗ |
Polls (39)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1225 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-11-02 | 454 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 1256 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-11-01 | 500 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-31 | 1210 | D+6.7 | 0 |
| Clout Research | 2012-10-30 | 1074 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-29 | 750 | EVEN | 7 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-29 | 825 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-29 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-28 | 1065 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2012-10-27 | 402 | D+9.0 | 2 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-10-27 | 1243 | D+8.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-25 | 500 | EVEN | 7 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-24 | 500 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-23 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-23 | 827 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-10-19 | 502 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-18 | 500 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-17 | 500 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-16 | 625 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-16 | 1013 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-15 | 1000 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-10-13 | 870 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-09 | 500 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 639 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-08 | 1000 | D+4.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-06 | 1327 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-05 | 979 | D+2.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-01 | 1000 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-09-29 | 894 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-09-29 | 414 | D+10.1 | 3 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-22 | 1238 | D+11.5 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-18 | 842 | D+7.0 | 0 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-17 | 968 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-17 | 500 | D+3.0 | 4 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-09-15 | 601 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-14 | 1485 | D+6.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-12 | 959 | D+1.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 753 | D+1.0 | 6 |