Actual result
D+20.8
Final polls said
D+14.3
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+16.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EPIC-MRA | D+21.0 | 0.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+16.5 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Glengariff Group | D+14.9 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Mitchell Research & Communications | D+14.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | Angus Reid Global | D+13.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Polling | D+13.0 | 7.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | D+12.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+12.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | Gravis Marketing | D+8.7 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Baydoun Consulting | D+6.6 | 14.2 | ✓ |
| 11 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | D+6.0 | 14.8 | ✓ |
Polls (21)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2012-11-04 | 1305 | D+14.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1091 | D+12.0 | 9 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-11-02 | 502 | D+13.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 700 | D+13.0 | 8 |
| Baydoun Consulting | 2012-11-02 | 1913 | D+6.6 | 14 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2012-10-28 | 600 | D+21.0 | 0 |
| Glengariff Group | 2012-10-28 | 600 | D+14.9 | 6 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-10-19 | 679 | D+20.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-11 | 500 | D+12.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 895 | D+10.0 | 11 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-07 | 1122 | D+8.7 | 12 |
| Glengariff Group | 2012-10-07 | 600 | D+12.6 | 8 |
| Baydoun Consulting | 2012-10-05 | 1122 | D+8.1 | 13 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2012-10-05 | 600 | D+20.0 | 1 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-21 | 804 | D+13.9 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-20 | 500 | D+16.0 | 5 |
| Glengariff Group | 2012-09-16 | 600 | D+15.9 | 5 |
| Baydoun Consulting | 2012-09-12 | 1156 | D+4.8 | 16 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2012-09-12 | 600 | D+6.0 | 15 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1114 | D+6.0 | 15 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2012-09-10 | 600 | D+11.0 | 10 |