Actual result
D+19.5
Final polls said
D+18.8
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+20.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | D+18.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+18.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | D+18.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+22.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+15.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+15.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+14.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
Polls (11)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 987 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | 2012-10-24 | 601 | D+18.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-17 | 577 | D+20.0 | 1 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2012-10-15 | 811 | D+22.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-12 | 1319 | D+18.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 770 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | 2012-10-06 | 600 | D+14.0 | 5 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2012-09-21 | 613 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1121 | D+14.0 | 5 |
| Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | 2012-09-11 | 600 | D+11.0 | 8 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2012-09-09 | 706 | D+14.0 | 5 |