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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
New Jersey Senate
In the 2012 New Jersey Senate race, Robert Menendez (D) won by about 19 points.
Actual result
D+19.5
Final polls said
D+18.8
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+20.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | D+18.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Quinnipiac University | D+18.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | D+22.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+15.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | D+15.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | D+14.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
11 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-024
Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer)2012-10-241
SurveyUSA2012-10-171
Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy2012-10-153
Quinnipiac University2012-10-121
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 New Jersey Senate race?
Robert Menendez (D) won, by about 19.5 points (D+19.5).
When was the 2012 New Jersey Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.