Actual result
D+5.7
Final polls said
D+5.3
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+7.4 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | GBAO | D+10.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | We Ask America | D+11.5 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 8 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+13.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
Polls (16)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 650 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-30 | 500 | EVEN | 6 |
| GBAO | 2012-10-28 | 679 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2012-10-24 | 650 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-23 | 727 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-21 | 500 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2012-10-10 | 658 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-08 | 500 | D+13.0 | 7 |
| GBAO | 2012-10-06 | 600 | D+12.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-27 | 500 | D+13.0 | 7 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-26 | 1258 | D+11.5 | 6 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-26 | 500 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| GBAO | 2012-09-25 | 600 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-12 | 500 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 293 | D+14.0 | 8 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-08 | 1122 | D+9.0 | 3 |