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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
New Mexico Senate
In the 2012 New Mexico Senate race, Martin Heinrich (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+5.7
Final polls said
D+5.3
6 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Research & Polling Inc. | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | GBAO | D+10.0 | 4.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Opinion Strategies | EVEN | 5.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | We Ask America | D+11.5 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 7 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+13.0 | 7.3 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
16 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-021
Public Opinion Strategies2012-10-306
GBAO2012-10-284
Research & Polling Inc.2012-10-242
Public Policy Polling2012-10-232
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 New Mexico Senate race?
Martin Heinrich (D) won, by about 5.7 points (D+5.7).
When was the 2012 New Mexico Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.