Actual result
D+40.8
Final polls said
D+40.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+35.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+42.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+43.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+44.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+37.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+35.1 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+32.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
Polls (7)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1430 | D+32.0 | 9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-24 | 554 | D+42.0 | 1 |
| Siena College | 2012-10-23 | 750 | D+43.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-20 | 565 | D+44.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 1142 | D+30.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1403 | D+27.0 | 14 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-06 | 1486 | D+37.0 | 4 |