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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
New York Senate
In the 2012 New York Senate race, Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) won by about 41 points.
Actual result
D+40.8
Final polls said
D+40.3
4 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | D+42.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+43.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | Marist College | D+44.0 | 3.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Quinnipiac University | D+37.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+32.0 | 8.8 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
7 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-029
SurveyUSA2012-10-241
Siena College2012-10-232
Marist College2012-10-203
YouGov2012-10-0811
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 New York Senate race?
Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) won, by about 40.8 points (D+40.8).
When was the 2012 New York Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.