Actual result
D+6.0
Final polls said
D+5.0
31 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+7.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Angus Reid Global | D+6.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Columbus Dispatch | D+6.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | D+6.9 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | D+5.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | D+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 6 | Suffolk University | D+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | D+7.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+7.8 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 9 | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | D+3.8 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 10 | Ipsos | D+9.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 11 | SurveyUSA | D+3.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 12 | Quinnipiac University | D+9.0 | 3.0 | ✓ |
| 13 | Public Policy Polling | D+10.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 14 | YouGov | D+2.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 15 | We Ask America | D+2.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 16 | Gravis Marketing | D+1.0 | 5.0 | ✓ |
| 17 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | EVEN | 6.0 | ✗ |
| 18 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+12.0 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 19 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+1.0 | 7.0 | ✗ |
| 20 | Clout Research | R+5.0 | 11.0 | ✗ |
Polls (56)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ipsos | 2012-11-04 | 680 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-11-04 | 832 | D+6.9 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-11-03 | 803 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-11-03 | 540 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-03 | 1000 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1620 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2012-11-02 | 901 | D+3.8 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 1012 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2012-11-01 | 1313 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-11-01 | 750 | EVEN | 6 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-31 | 971 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Clout Research | 2012-10-30 | 1281 | R+5.0 | 11 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-29 | 826 | D+6.3 | 0 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-29 | 1000 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-28 | 603 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2012-10-28 | 1501 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-28 | 750 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-10-27 | 730 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2012-10-27 | 1182 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-27 | 718 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-25 | 1110 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-23 | 750 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-21 | 609 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2012-10-20 | 1015 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2012-10-20 | 600 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-19 | 532 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-10-19 | 550 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-19 | 1548 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-17 | 750 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-10-16 | 600 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-15 | 1000 | D+6.0 | 0 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-14 | 613 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-12 | 880 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-10 | 500 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-08 | 1000 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 851 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-08 | 994 | D+11.0 | 5 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2012-10-08 | 842 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-07 | 808 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-04 | 500 | EVEN | 6 |
| Clout Research | 2012-10-04 | 1072 | R+4.1 | 10 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-04 | 1200 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-30 | 931 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-29 | 897 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Columbus Dispatch | 2012-09-24 | 1662 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2012-09-23 | 600 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-21 | 594 | D+0.9 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-21 | 1162 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2012-09-21 | 759 | D+12.0 | 6 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2012-09-17 | 1009 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 2012-09-15 | 861 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-12 | 500 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1036 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-10 | 979 | D+7.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-08 | 1072 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2012-09-07 | 1548 | D+5.6 | 0 |