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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Pennsylvania Senate
In the 2012 Pennsylvania Senate race, Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
D+9.1
Final polls said
D+5.5
16 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+9.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | D+9.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | D+10.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+8.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | D+8.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Angus Reid Global | D+7.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer) | D+7.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+12.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 9 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+6.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+13.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | D+3.0 | 6.1 | ✓ |
| 12 | McLaughlin & Associates | D+2.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
| 13 | Clout Research | D+1.2 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 14 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 15 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | D+1.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 16 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+1.0 | 8.1 | ✓ |
| 17 | GS Strategy Group | D+0.2 | 8.9 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
36 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Angus Reid Global2012-11-032
YouGov2012-11-021
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion2012-11-023
Public Policy Polling2012-11-021
Rasmussen Reports2012-10-308
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Pennsylvania Senate race?
Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won, by about 9.1 points (D+9.1).
When was the 2012 Pennsylvania Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.