Toss-up · 2012 Senate

Pennsylvania Senate

In the 2012 Pennsylvania Senate race, Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) won by about 9 points.

Actual result

D+9.1

Final polls said

D+5.5

16 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research	D+9.0	0.1	✓
2	Siena College	D+9.0	0.1	✓
3	Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics	D+10.0	0.9	✓
4	YouGov	D+8.0	1.1	✓
5	Public Policy Polling	D+8.0	1.1	✓
6	Angus Reid Global	D+7.0	2.1	✓
7	Global Strategy Group/National Research (Philadelphia Inquirer)	D+7.0	2.1	✓
8	Harstad Strategic Research	D+12.0	2.9	✓
9	Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	D+6.0	3.1	✓
10	Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group	D+13.0	3.9	✓
11	Quinnipiac University	D+3.0	6.1	✓
12	McLaughlin & Associates	D+2.0	7.1	✓
13	Clout Research	D+1.2	7.9	✓
14	Rasmussen Reports	D+1.0	8.1	✓
15	Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc.	D+1.0	8.1	✓
16	Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports)	D+1.0	8.1	✓
17	GS Strategy Group	D+0.2	8.9	✓