Actual result
R+34.5
Final polls said
R+35.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+32.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+33.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+32.6 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Middle Tennessee State University | R+38.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 697 | R+33.0 | 1 |
| Middle Tennessee State University | 2012-10-18 | 609 | R+38.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 484 | R+21.0 | 13 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 694 | R+24.0 | 10 |