Actual result
R+15.8
Final polls said
R+18.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Frederick Polls | R+17.0 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+21.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+21.6 | 5.8 | ✓ |
| 4 | Texas Lyceum | R+26.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1563 | R+21.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-18 | 540 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 958 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| Texas Lyceum | 2012-09-18 | 1175 | R+26.0 | 10 |
| Frederick Polls | 2012-09-12 | 679 | R+17.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 1165 | R+19.0 | 3 |