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Toss-up · 2012 Senate
Wisconsin Senate
In the 2012 Wisconsin Senate race, Tammy Baldwin (D) won by about 6 points.
Actual result
D+5.5
Final polls said
D+1.2
18 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquette University Law School | D+4.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Feldman Group | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | WPA Intelligence | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | We Ask America | D+2.2 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Angus Reid Global | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Quinnipiac University | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | EVEN | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 12 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | Clout Research | R+2.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | R+3.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
35 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
YouGov2012-11-025
Angus Reid Global2012-11-024
Public Policy Polling2012-11-023
We Ask America2012-10-313
Clout Research2012-10-308
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2012 Wisconsin Senate race?
Tammy Baldwin (D) won, by about 5.5 points (D+5.5).
When was the 2012 Wisconsin Senate election held?
It was held in November 2012.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.