Actual result
D+5.5
Final polls said
D+1.2
18 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquette University Law School | D+4.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Public Policy Polling | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Feldman Group | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 4 | WPA Intelligence | D+3.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | We Ask America | D+2.2 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Angus Reid Global | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Quinnipiac University | D+2.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | D+1.6 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Marist College | D+1.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | EVEN | 5.5 | ✗ |
| 13 | Rasmussen Reports | R+1.0 | 6.5 | ✗ |
| 14 | Clout Research | R+2.0 | 7.5 | ✗ |
| 15 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | R+3.0 | 8.6 | ✗ |
Polls (35)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2012-11-02 | 1225 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-11-02 | 454 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-11-02 | 1256 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| We Ask America | 2012-10-31 | 1210 | D+2.2 | 3 |
| Clout Research | 2012-10-30 | 1074 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-29 | 750 | EVEN | 6 |
| Feldman Group | 2012-10-29 | 800 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-29 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-28 | 1065 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-10-27 | 1243 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2012-10-27 | 402 | R+3.0 | 9 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-25 | 500 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Angus Reid Global | 2012-10-19 | 502 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-18 | 500 | R+2.0 | 8 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2012-10-16 | 625 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2012-10-16 | 1013 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-15 | 1000 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Feldman Group | 2012-10-15 | 800 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-10-13 | 870 | R+1.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-10-09 | 500 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2012-10-08 | 639 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2012-10-08 | 1000 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-10-06 | 1327 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-10-05 | 979 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2012-10-01 | 500 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-09-29 | 894 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2012-09-22 | 1238 | D+11.4 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-18 | 842 | D+4.0 | 2 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2012-09-17 | 500 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Marist College | 2012-09-17 | 968 | D+2.0 | 4 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2012-09-15 | 601 | D+9.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2012-09-14 | 1485 | EVEN | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2012-09-12 | 959 | D+3.0 | 3 |
| Feldman Group | 2012-09-11 | 800 | D+5.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2012-09-11 | 753 | R+4.0 | 10 |