Actual result
R+22.1
Final polls said
R+25.4
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+24.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+24.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | R+24.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+20.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Fairleigh Dickinson University | R+19.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Rasmussen Reports | R+18.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | Quinnipiac University | R+28.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | R+36.0 | 13.9 | ✓ |
Polls (19)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2013-11-01 | 1436 | R+20.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-11-01 | 1388 | R+28.0 | 6 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2013-10-30 | 535 | R+36.0 | 14 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2013-10-28 | 1000 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2013-10-27 | 570 | R+19.0 | 3 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2013-10-25 | 804 | R+24.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-10-24 | 1203 | R+33.0 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-10-12 | 1938 | R+29.0 | 7 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2013-10-11 | 1606 | R+24.0 | 2 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2013-10-10 | 562 | R+26.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2013-10-07 | 1000 | R+21.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-10-06 | 1144 | R+29.0 | 7 |
| Fairleigh Dickinson University | 2013-10-02 | 702 | R+33.0 | 11 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2013-09-28 | 615 | R+19.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-09-21 | 1249 | R+34.0 | 12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2013-09-19 | 1000 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Stockton University William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy | 2013-09-18 | 812 | R+28.0 | 6 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2013-09-10 | 999 | R+26.0 | 4 |
| Rutgers University Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling | 2013-09-06 | 568 | R+20.0 | 2 |