Actual result
D+2.5
Final polls said
D+8.0
16 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+10.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | D+2.0 | 0.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Clout Research | D+1.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Conquest Communications Group | D+0.5 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harper Polling | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Purple Strategies | D+5.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | Quinnipiac University | D+6.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | Hampton University Center for Public Policy | D+6.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | Public Policy Polling | D+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Rasmussen Reports | D+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | D+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | Old Dominion University | D+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 13 | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | D+7.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 14 | Public Policy Polling/Harper Polling | D+9.0 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 15 | VotePredictor | D+10.7 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 16 | ABC News/The Washington Post | D+12.0 | 9.5 | ✓ |
| 17 | Zogby Analytics | D+12.3 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 18 | Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | D+15.0 | 12.5 | ✓ |
Polls (32)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2013-11-02 | 666 | D+12.3 | 10 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2013-11-02 | 600 | D+12.3 | 10 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2013-11-02 | 870 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-10-31 | 1606 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2013-10-28 | 1002 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2013-10-27 | 1038 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2013-10-27 | 874 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2013-10-27 | 600 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Hampton University Center for Public Policy | 2013-10-26 | 800 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2013-10-26 | 762 | D+12.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-10-25 | 1182 | D+4.0 | 1 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2013-10-24 | 838 | D+15.0 | 12 |
| Clout Research | 2013-10-22 | 640 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Old Dominion University | 2013-10-22 | 670 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2013-10-20 | 1000 | D+17.0 | 14 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-10-18 | 1085 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-10-05 | 1180 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling/Harper Polling | 2013-10-05 | 1150 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Christopher Newport University Wason Center for Civic Leadership | 2013-10-03 | 886 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2013-10-02 | 1046 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2013-09-28 | 600 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2013-09-28 | 519 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Hampton University Center for Public Policy | 2013-09-27 | 800 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 2013-09-27 | 559 | D+7.0 | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2013-09-23 | 1050 | D+6.0 | 3 |
| ABC News/The Washington Post | 2013-09-21 | 562 | D+8.0 | 5 |
| Conquest Communications Group | 2013-09-19 | 400 | D+0.5 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2013-09-18 | 546 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Harper Polling | 2013-09-15 | 779 | D+5.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2013-09-12 | 1005 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| Roanoke College Institute for Policy and Opinion Research | 2013-09-12 | 874 | D+1.0 | 2 |
| Purple Strategies | 2013-09-08 | 800 | D+5.0 | 2 |