Actual result
D+19.9
Final polls said
D+18.4
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+18.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | D+19.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | D+21.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+18.7 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Zogby Analytics | D+18.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | YouGov | D+18.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Policy Institute of California | D+16.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2014-10-30 | 705 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | 2014-10-26 | 1169 | D+19.0 | 1 |
| Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 2014-10-21 | 941 | D+21.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 7463 | D+18.0 | 2 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2014-10-16 | 976 | D+16.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 7943 | D+20.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Institute of California | 2014-09-12 | 916 | D+21.0 | 1 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint | 2014-09-05 | 1109 | D+21.0 | 1 |