Actual result
R+21.7
Final polls said
R+18.0
13 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+16.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monmouth University Polling Institute | R+21.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | R+20.8 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Ipsos | R+23.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Marist College | R+23.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | Selzer & Co. | R+24.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 6 | Rasmussen Reports | R+18.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+17.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Suffolk University | R+17.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | R+16.3 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | Magellan Strategies | R+16.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 11 | YouGov | R+15.0 | 6.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Public Policy Polling | R+11.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | Quinnipiac University | R+11.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | Gravis Marketing | R+8.0 | 13.7 | ✓ |
Polls (24)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-02 | 1265 | R+11.0 | 11 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-30 | 778 | R+11.0 | 11 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2014-10-30 | 701 | R+24.0 | 2 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-29 | 990 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-29 | 911 | R+17.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-28 | 1112 | R+15.0 | 7 |
| Ipsos | 2014-10-26 | 1129 | R+23.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-24 | 817 | R+19.0 | 3 |
| Loras College Public Opinion Survey Center | 2014-10-23 | 1121 | R+20.8 | 1 |
| Monmouth University Polling Institute | 2014-10-20 | 423 | R+21.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-20 | 772 | R+23.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 2322 | R+13.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-18 | 964 | R+18.0 | 4 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-10-13 | 500 | R+17.0 | 5 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-10 | 967 | R+15.0 | 7 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2014-10-03 | 1299 | R+16.0 | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-29 | 522 | R+8.0 | 14 |
| Marist College | 2014-09-29 | 778 | R+22.0 | 0 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-27 | 1192 | R+14.0 | 8 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2359 | R+13.0 | 9 |
| Selzer & Co. | 2014-09-23 | 546 | R+14.0 | 8 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-17 | 750 | R+6.0 | 16 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-09-15 | 600 | R+13.0 | 9 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-09-12 | 1167 | R+23.0 | 1 |