Actual result
R+4.1
Final polls said
R+1.8
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glengariff Group | R+5.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | R+5.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Denno Research | R+3.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | EPIC-MRA | R+2.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Lake Research Partners | R+1.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Mitchell Research & Communications | EVEN | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 10 | Clarity Campaign Labs | EVEN | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | We Ask America | EVEN | 4.1 | ✗ |
| 12 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 13 | Target Insyght | D+1.0 | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 14 | Suffolk University | D+2.0 | 6.1 | ✗ |
Polls (30)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-11-02 | 1224 | EVEN | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-11-01 | 914 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2014-11-01 | 1003 | EVEN | 4 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2014-10-27 | 600 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-10-27 | 1159 | R+4.9 | 1 |
| Glengariff Group | 2014-10-23 | 600 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-21 | 1000 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 2394 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-20 | 723 | EVEN | 4 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-10-19 | 919 | R+2.3 | 2 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2014-10-19 | 1032 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2014-10-18 | 600 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Clarity Campaign Labs | 2014-10-13 | 957 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-10-12 | 1340 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-10-09 | 1306 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Glengariff Group | 2014-10-03 | 600 | R+8.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-02 | 654 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Marketing Resource Group (MRG) | 2014-09-30 | 600 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-09-29 | 1178 | R+4.0 | 0 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2014-09-28 | 600 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| EPIC-MRA | 2014-09-27 | 600 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 2560 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Target Insyght | 2014-09-24 | 600 | D+1.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-18 | 852 | R+2.0 | 2 |
| We Ask America | 2014-09-18 | 1182 | EVEN | 4 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-17 | 750 | R+6.0 | 2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2014-09-14 | 829 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| Denno Research | 2014-09-12 | 600 | R+3.0 | 1 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-09-08 | 500 | D+2.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-06 | 687 | R+1.0 | 3 |