Actual result
R+14.4
Final polls said
R+15.3
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+15.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research & Polling Inc. | R+15.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+15.6 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Rasmussen Reports | R+13.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | R+12.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | BWD Global | R+18.8 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Public Opinion Strategies | R+19.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gravis Marketing | R+4.0 | 10.4 | ✓ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2014-10-22 | 614 | R+15.0 | 1 |
| BWD Global | 2014-10-21 | 1077 | R+18.8 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 962 | R+12.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2014-10-06 | 600 | R+19.0 | 5 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-29 | 727 | R+4.0 | 10 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1093 | R+7.0 | 7 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-22 | 830 | R+13.0 | 1 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2014-09-10 | 603 | R+18.0 | 4 |