Actual result
D+14.7
Final polls said
D+23.3
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+22.8
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rasmussen Reports | D+17.0 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Quinnipiac University | D+20.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | Zogby Analytics | D+21.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Siena College | D+21.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+22.8 | 8.2 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+25.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
| 7 | Marist College | D+26.0 | 11.3 | ✓ |
Polls (9)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2014-10-30 | 681 | D+21.0 | 6 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-27 | 503 | D+26.0 | 11 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 5122 | D+25.0 | 10 |
| Siena College | 2014-10-18 | 748 | D+21.0 | 6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-03 | 1153 | D+20.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 5122 | D+27.0 | 12 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-22 | 825 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Siena College | 2014-09-20 | 809 | D+29.0 | 14 |
| Marist College | 2014-09-19 | 517 | D+25.0 | 10 |