Actual result
D+9.9
Final polls said
D+9.8
5 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+11.0
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Harper Polling | D+10.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+11.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | D+12.0 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Magellan Strategies | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | D+7.0 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+13.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | D+15.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Quinnipiac University | D+17.0 | 7.1 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2014-10-28 | 409 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2014-10-27 | 1433 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Harper Polling | 2014-10-26 | 680 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2014-10-23 | 341 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 3111 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2014-10-13 | 1131 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-10-02 | 907 | D+17.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 3283 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Mercyhurst University Center for Applied Politics | 2014-09-19 | 479 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research | 2014-09-19 | 520 | D+21.0 | 11 |
| Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion | 2014-09-17 | 429 | D+21.0 | 11 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2014-09-17 | 1120 | D+9.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2014-09-05 | 1161 | D+24.0 | 14 |