Actual result
R+47.5
Final polls said
R+30.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+32.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middle Tennessee State University | R+33.0 | 14.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+32.6 | 14.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+28.0 | 19.5 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Tennessee State University | 2014-10-24 | 557 | R+33.0 | 14 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 974 | R+28.0 | 19 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1007 | R+32.0 | 15 |