Actual result
R+20.4
Final polls said
R+20.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+18.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | R+20.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+18.2 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | R+15.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+11.0 | 9.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Texas Lyceum | R+9.0 | 11.4 | ✓ |
Polls (6)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 3987 | R+20.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-14 | 866 | R+16.0 | 4 |
| University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs | 2014-10-04 | 781 | R+15.0 | 5 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-01 | 840 | R+11.0 | 9 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 4177 | R+14.0 | 6 |
| Texas Lyceum | 2014-09-18 | 666 | R+9.0 | 11 |