Actual result
R+5.7
Final polls said
R+1.7
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marquette University Law School | R+7.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Gravis Marketing | R+4.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+2.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.8 | 3.9 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | R+1.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | Rasmussen Reports | D+1.0 | 6.7 | ✗ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-29 | 1814 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-28 | 1494 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2014-10-25 | 1164 | R+7.0 | 1 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-20 | 973 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 3308 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 2014-10-20 | 525 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-17 | 860 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2014-10-11 | 803 | EVEN | 6 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-10-03 | 837 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2014-09-27 | 585 | R+5.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1444 | D+1.0 | 7 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-22 | 908 | D+5.0 | 11 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-15 | 750 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2014-09-13 | 589 | R+3.0 | 3 |